Marking Two Years of COVID-19
It’s hard to imagine that two years have now passed since the first shelter-in-place order was issued due to the outbreak of COVID-19 in the Bay Area. We all remember what we were doing on March 17, 2020. For most of us, we were inside our homes, cut off from the physical world, thinking and hoping this new reality will be a momentary blip in history. Just two weeks earlier, a local state of emergency was declared, when the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed in Berkeley. It was the first day of the shelter at home order in response to the emerging pandemic, a day that would mark a paradigm shift in our daily lives. But even before the days and weeks turned into months, Berkeley residents quickly adapted to this sudden change.
A meeting of the City Council was taking place that evening, the chambers mostly empty. For safety reasons, half the councilmembers called in to the special meeting where we took action to adopt an eviction moratorium in response to the state of emergency, and established the Berkeley Relief Fund, which included an initial down payment of $3 million dollars from the City. A virtual community event took place to promote the Fund, raising an additional $1.7 million in private funds. In total, the Berkeley Relief Fund would go on to support 700 small businesses, 63 arts organizations, and countless tenants.
Without being able to interact in-person with friends and family, people got creative. From joining friends over Zoom to binge-watch Tiger King to creating scavenger hunts where people would walk neighborhoods searching for hidden teddy bears, people were able to socialize while social distancing. But what is more remarkable is what residents did to give back to the community in people’s time of need. Through community-driven efforts, new resources were created to provide food and assistance to those who needed it. Advocates also transformed our streetscapes, which led to the launching of programs such as Healthy Streets and parklets for outdoor dining and commerce. Despite being physically separated, our community came closer together.
Effective Vaccination Rollout Saved Lives
The first vaccinations became public at the end of 2020, but for the first few months, availability was limited based on eligibility requirements to ensure that those who needed the vaccine the most got it first. While the nationwide rollout was initially slow as demand greatly outweighed supply, Berkeley was able to secure and effectively distribute vaccines through targeted outreach to vulnerable communities and through its mass vaccination site at Golden Gate Fields, where 100,000 vaccines were administered during its operation. Through an extensive effort with both City employees and volunteers, Berkeley outpaced the rest of the country and the region in vaccination rates. On March 15, 2021, 16% of Berkeley residents were fully vaccinated, when only seniors, healthcare workers, and select limited groups were eligible for vaccination. In just two months, as eligibility became nearly universal, that number jumped to 60%. Today it is at 92%.
As the general public patiently waited their turn for the vaccine, extensive outreach early into the vaccination rollout allowed us to quickly vaccinate seniors and those most vulnerable to serious health impacts from the virus. From December 1, 2020 through January 31, 2021, 29 residents died during the winter surge. But as the initial eligible population got vaccinated, the death rate plummeted. From February 1, 2021 through today, 21 people died, all unvaccinated. In total, 61 Berkeley residents have succumbed to COVID-19. This is no doubt a tragic loss, and we mourn those in our community who are no longer with us. Yet we are privileged to live in a country where ultimately access to vaccines is plentiful and, as a result, many lives were saved through vaccination.
Overcoming Variant Setbacks
As cases fell to just a handful a day in late spring 2021, optimism was beginning to rise, but the pandemic was far from over. In the summer, the Delta variant emerged, bringing 1,250 cases from July 1, 2021 through September 30, 2021, about a third of the total cases to that date. As boosters became available, cases began to dip again in the fall.
The rise of the Omicron variant was a game changer. The original vaccine dosage was not as effective against the heavily mutated strain, and while getting a booster shot protected people against serious health impacts and hospitalizations, breakthrough cases even among the boosted population occurred. Case rate records were obliterated but, due to the high vaccination rates, hospitalizations did not rise at the rate seen in previous surges. Due to the sheer number of cases, hospitalizations were on par with the winter 2021 surge, but case per capita among the infected population were significantly lower, and deaths fortunately were limited. Between December 1, 2021 and March 15, 2022, 7,752 cases were officially recorded - a number that does not include people who tested positive using just home test kits. The Omicron surge accounted for around 60% of all recorded cases of COVID-19 in Berkeley, but just 13% of all hospitalizations of Berkeley residents and 10% of deaths during the pandemic to date.
In recent weeks, as numbers continue to fall, there has been a rollback on various Health Orders. While still strongly recommended, it is no longer a requirement to wear a mask in many indoor settings. The same applies for businesses requiring proof of vaccinations. These changes, as approved by the Berkeley Health Officer in consultation and alignment with the region’s Health Officers, are based on the latest data and will continue to be updated as the situation changes.
The Future of COVID-19
There will not be a singular day that will mark the end of the pandemic. Indeed it is impossible to know what exactly will happen, but history provides some hints. Typically, major pandemics last 2-3 years. The 1918 pandemic lasted around three years, and the more recent H1N1 virus of 2009 lasted a couple of years. These viruses didn’t disappear; as they mutated they became less lethal, and as immunities rose, circulation went down. We cannot confirm that COVID-19 will share the same trajectory, even as the lethality of COVID-19 has decreased over time (which can be attributed to multiple factors, most notably vaccinations). What is likely is that COVID-19 will be with us for some time.
Already, California is in the process of transitioning from a pandemic to an endemic, but what does that mean? An endemic is when a virus is present, but is basically in the background. It is more contained and can be easily managed, and cases are not spiraling to the point of it placing pressures on the healthcare system. The flu is an example of an endemic. With cases around the world still at elevated levels, and cases rising in parts of Europe and Asia, COVID-19 still remains a serious threat on a global scale. But locally and nationally, the situation has improved greatly over the last couple of months. That is not to say that a resurgence will not happen; the threat of a new variant emerging and local outbreaks remains. However, the lessons we have learned over the past couple of years will help us navigate what the future of COVID-19 holds.
The local state of emergency remains in effect, and I expect it will remain in effect until at least late May. Continuing the emergency enables us to free up resources to provide a continued response to the pandemic, such as coordination of testing and vaccination sites. Additionally, the eviction moratorium is tied to the local emergency. While much of the economic impacts caused by COVID-19 may no longer be with us, rising inflation and economic uncertainties caused by the war in Ukraine is creating a new wave of instability for some in our community. That is why I want to make it clear that I am committed to preventing an eviction cliff when the local emergency ends, and will work with stakeholders to advance policies and programs to support those who are housing insecure.
Closing Thoughts
The last two years have highlighted just how resilient we are as a city. In the face of an unprecedented pandemic, Berkeleyans took the steps needed to protect ourselves and our neighbors. You donated towards important causes, you followed the science and got vaccinated, while wearing a mask and practicing social distancing. You remained engaged as we hosted 25 virtual town halls specifically on COVID-19 and provided frequent updates. We all had to make sacrifices, and we will emerge stronger as a result. In addition to being inspired by the way our community responded to this crisis, I am also eternally grateful to the hard work that our city employees did, many of whom were reassigned to the Emergency Operations Center to respond to an ever changing scenario.
As we plan for a shift towards an endemic, we must not lose sight of the fundamental issues that have been highlighted during the pandemic. People of color were more likely to become infected and die from COVID-19, while the biggest economic burden was placed on low income and working class families. Addressing racial disparities and inequality is key to any work we do. I hope we can use this moment as an opportunity to forge a more equitable future as we shift to a post-pandemic world.